NevDull’s Take On Things

Giuliani Candidacy a Problem for Republicans?

February 5th, 2007

I’ve read mounds about a possible Giuliani run for president, and I’m not really sure what to think of it. I’ve only come to live in New York City after he was gone, but I think the city is better for having had him. I’ve come to the conclusion that the Republican Party could really use a good, solid split. I’d like to see the Republicans move from a “big tent” inside of which the “normal people” are scurried off to behind the elephant poop area.

I’d be a fan of splitting the party in two. Reasonable people who are currently Republicans could leave the wacked-out religious folks at a retreat in the Ozarks and get to some real business.

I’m both jaded and optimistic. I believe that there are people in this country with the honest goal of making things better. I also believe that many of those people are shut out of their party’s mainstream.

Compromise isn’t weakness. It’s how progress is made. Presidential veto should be rare, and require a statement of justification. The Supreme Court writes opinions to explain their judgements. Signing statements shouldn’t be a “yeah, but”, and unnecessary when vetoing, or letting a bill lay fallow until expiration.

Then again, Congress passing a bill shouldn’t be the almighty decision maker, either. The rules made by the majority in either house can be quite petty, or downright ominous. Committee membership is laughable at times. Denying a vote can be downright dismissive. Fairness is something usually sought only by the minority, who tends to turn to oppressor upon ascention back to the throne.

So… getting back to my point. If we had a schism in the Republican Party (maybe break it on a gay rights / pro-life line), I could foresee a considerable migration from the Democrats as well. Let’s call them Demicans, this new, third party.

In ‘04, the Annenberg Public Policy Center polled and found that 31.8% of people thought of themselves as Republican, generally speaking, 34.6% Democrat, and 25.2% independent. Yeah, that’s only 91.6%. I’m not sure what happened to the other 8.4%, but I’ll forget about them for now.

I’d say that a third or so of people are Republicans who’d leave, and maybe a quarter of Democrats would join them. I’d venture that half of the independents would consider becoming a Demican. 10.6 + 8.7 + 12.6 = 31.9%

If things went that way, it would be 21.2% Republican, 25.9% Democrat, 31.9% Demican, and 12.6% Independent. I’m envisioning a Democrat/Demican coalition to govern, forcing the wackjob Republicans to turn to Jesus for salvation. Should the Democrats get too haughty, people would leave the Demicans, lowering the power base of the coalition, and allowing a re-found equilibrium far short of the extremes of either party.

I guess I’m letting this hit the press before I’m done thinking about it, but I think it better to get it out there than let it slide away when I go to sleep.

Entry Filed under: General, Government Sucks